{"id":766,"date":"2010-02-09T20:19:35","date_gmt":"2010-02-09T12:19:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/xiangge.andrewsun.net\/?p=766"},"modified":"2010-11-13T18:02:49","modified_gmt":"2010-11-13T10:02:49","slug":"%e5%9c%b0%e9%9c%87%e9%a2%84%e6%b5%8b%e5%92%8c%e4%ba%ba%e7%94%9f%e9%a2%84%e6%b5%8b","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.andrewsun.net\/panta_rhei\/archives\/766","title":{"rendered":"\u5730\u9707\u9884\u6d4b\u548c\u4eba\u751f\u9884\u6d4b"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"kcite-section\" kcite-section-id=\"766\">\n<p><span style=\"float: left; padding: 5px;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.researchblogging.org\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"ResearchBlogging.org\" src=\"http:\/\/www.researchblogging.org\/public\/citation_icons\/rb2_mid.png\" style=\"border:0;\"\/><\/a><\/span><span class=\"Z3988\" title=\"ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&#038;rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&#038;rft.jtitle=Nature&#038;rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1038%2F463160a&#038;rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fresearchblogging.org&#038;rft.atitle=No+crystal+ball+for+natural+disasters&#038;rft.issn=0028-0836&#038;rft.date=2010&#038;rft.volume=463&#038;rft.issue=7278&#038;rft.spage=160&#038;rft.epage=160&#038;rft.artnum=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nature.com%2Fdoifinder%2F10.1038%2F463160a&#038;rft.au=Robinson%2C+A.&#038;rfe_dat=bpr3.included=1;bpr3.tags=Geosciences%2CMathematics%2CChaos%2C+Probability+and+Statistics%2C+Seismology\">Robinson, A. (2010). No crystal ball for natural disasters <span style=\"font-style: italic;\">Nature, 463<\/span> (7278), 160-160 DOI: <a rev=\"review\" href=\"http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.1038\/463160a\">10.1038\/463160a<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.com\/gp\/product\/0691133506?ie=UTF8&#038;tag=wa0cc-20&#038;linkCode=as2&#038;camp=1789&#038;creative=9325&#038;creativeASIN=0691133506\">Megadisasters: The Science of Predicting the Next Catastrophe<\/a><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.assoc-amazon.com\/e\/ir?t=wa0cc-20&#038;l=as2&#038;o=1&#038;a=0691133506\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" border=\"0\" alt=\"\" style=\"border:none !important; margin:0px !important;\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Nature\u4e66\u8bc4\u4f5c\u8005\u5728\u8bc4\u8bba\u8fd9\u672c\u4e66\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u7ad9\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u60b2\u89c2\u7684\u7acb\u573a\u3002\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff1a<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>Without an understandig of what happens underground, forecasting is inevitably hit-and-miss.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>\u8bc4\u8bba\u4e2d\u8fd8\u56de\u987e\u4e86\u4e2d\u56fd\u5efa\u56fd\u540e\u5730\u9707\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u51e0\u4ef6\u4e8b\u60c5\uff0c\u9009\u7528\u4e862008\u5e74\u5317\u5ddd\u5730\u9707\u7684\u7167\u7247\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u636e\u4e66\u8bc4\u4f5c\u8005\u4ecb\u7ecd\uff0c\u4e66\u7684\u4f5c\u8005\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\u662f\u6bd4\u8f83\u4e50\u89c2\u7684\uff1a<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>&#8220;At worst, earthquakes are part of a chaotic system, so long-term predictions will always fail,&#8221; notes Diacu. By contrast, he points out, short-term warnings do have a chance of success.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4e66\u8bc4\u4f5c\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff1a<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Nonetheless, his keynote is a welcome balance between pessimism and optimism.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>\u4e50\u89c2\u4e3b\u4e49\u548c\u60b2\u89c2\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u5e73\u8861\uff0c\u542c\u8d77\u6765\u50cf\u662f\u4eba\u751f\u667a\u6167\u591a\u8fc7\u50cf\u5730\u9707\u79d1\u5b66\u3002\u5176\u5b9e\uff0c\u79d1\u5b66\u611f\u5230\u56f0\u96be\u7684\u5730\u65b9\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u5df2\u77e5\u4e16\u754c\u548c\u672a\u77e5\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u4ea4\u754c\u4e4b\u5904\u3002\u800c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u672a\u77e5\u4e16\u754c\uff0c\u4e00\u5411\u4e0d\u7531\u79d1\u5b66\u8d1f\u8d23\u3002\u8981\u52c9\u5f3a\u5bf9\u672a\u77e5\u4e16\u754c\u8fdb\u884c\u201c\u9884\u6d4b\u201d\uff0c\u4e0d\u8981\u8bf4\u9677\u5165\u201chit-and-miss\u201d\uff0c\u6c42\u795e\u62dc\u4f5b\u9b3c\u4e0a\u8eab\uff0c\u82b1\u6837\u591a\u4e0d\u80dc\u6570\u3002\u6253\u5305\u7968\u7684\u4eba\u81ea\u7136\u662f\u795e\u68cd\uff0c\u800c\u76f8\u4fe1\u7684\u4eba\u65e0\u975e\u662f\u6c42\u4e2a\u5fc3\u5b89\u3002\u90a3\u4e9b\u58f0\u79f0\u6210\u529f\u9884\u6d4b\u5730\u9707\u8005\uff0c\u786c\u662f\u628a\u201chit-and-miss\u201d\u8bf4\u6210\u5fc5\u7136\uff0c\u4e0d\u5c31\u7b49\u4e8e\u795e\u68cd\u4e48\uff1f\u5c31\u96be\u602a\u8fd9\u4e48\u591a\u4eba\u6c11\u7fa4\u4f17\u53bb\u58f0\u63f4\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e66\u8bc4\u6807\u9898\u7528\u5230\u4e86crystalball\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8bcd\uff0c\u5927\u6982\u4e5f\u662f\u6307\u8fd9\u4e2a\u610f\u601d\u3002<\/p>\n<!-- kcite active, but no citations found -->\n<\/div> <!-- kcite-section 766 -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Robinson, A. (2010). No crystal ball for natural disasters Nature, 463 (7278), 160-160 DOI: 10.1038\/463160a Megadisasters: The Science of Predicting the Next Catastrophe Nature\u4e66\u8bc4\u4f5c\u8005\u5728\u8bc4\u8bba\u8fd9\u672c\u4e66\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u7ad9\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u60b2\u89c2\u7684\u7acb\u573a\u3002\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff1a Without an understandig of what happens underground, forecasting is inevitably hit-and-miss. \u8bc4\u8bba\u4e2d\u8fd8\u56de\u987e\u4e86\u4e2d\u56fd\u5efa\u56fd\u540e\u5730\u9707\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u51e0\u4ef6\u4e8b\u60c5\uff0c\u9009\u7528\u4e862008\u5e74\u5317\u5ddd\u5730\u9707\u7684\u7167\u7247\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u636e\u4e66\u8bc4\u4f5c\u8005\u4ecb\u7ecd\uff0c\u4e66\u7684\u4f5c\u8005\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\u662f\u6bd4\u8f83\u4e50\u89c2\u7684\uff1a &#8220;At worst, earthquakes are part of a chaotic system, so long-term predictions will always fail,&#8221; notes Diacu. By contrast, 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is always some uncertainty associated with scientific conclusions; science never absolutely proves anything. When someone says that society should wait until scientists are absolutely certain before taking any action, it is the same as saying society should never take action. For a problem as potentially catastrophic as climate change,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In 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Poly Rock\uff09\u201d\u7684\u521b\u65b0\u6750\u6599\uff0c\u5230\u5e95\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u4e1c\u897f\uff1f\u51ed\u4ec0\u4e48\u8bf4\u5b83\u201c\u6bd4\u666e\u901a\u6c34\u5c3c\u575a\u56fa4\u500d\u201d\u4e91\u4e91\uff1f\u6211\u53ef\u80fd\u8981\u5199\u4e2a\u4e13\u680f\u89e3\u91ca\u4e00\u4e0b\u8fd9\u56de\u4e8b\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u5728\u6b64\u5c31\u5148\u5356\u4e2a\u5173\u5b50\u3002\u4f46\u603b\u5f97\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u51e1\u662f\u6d89\u53ca\u5851\u6599\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u6211\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u90fd\u4f1a\u5e26\u7740\u82e6\u7b11\u7684\u8868\u60c5\u6765\u770b\u3002\u5927\u4f17\u7684\u5173\u6ce8\u70b9\u5b9e\u5728\u8ba9\u6211\u5f88\u7ea0\u7ed3\u2014\u2014\u6216\u8005\u8fd9\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u8bb0\u8005\u7684\u5173\u6ce8\u70b9\uff1f\u6700\u8d77\u7801\uff0c\u201c\u5e9f\u5851\u6599\u9020\u623f\u5b50\u201d\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u5e94\u8be5\u4ee5\u201c\u8d28\u7591\u201d\u4e3a\u57fa\u8c03\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u98d3\u98ce\u9891\u53d1\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u3002\u4f46\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u5374\u8bed\u8c03\u60ca\u559c\uff0c\u597d\u50cf\u8f6f\u6587\u3002\u4e00\u591c\u53d8\u8001\u7684\u5371\u9669\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u5982\u679c\u662f\u8f6f\u6587\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u90a3\u6211\u5c31\u4e0d\u7f6e\u8bc4\u4e86\u3002\u5426\u5219\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u8bb0\u8005\u4e0d\u592a\u4e86\u89e3\u5b66\u672f\u754c\u5173\u4e8e\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u9879\u76ee\u7684\u5229\u76ca\u51b2\u7a81\uff08conflict of interest\uff09\u548c\u8d44\u52a9\u4fe1\u606f\u516c\u5f00\uff08financial disclosure\uff09\u7684\u4f26\u7406\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u6211\u5df2\u7ecf\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e24\u4ef6\u4e8b\u7684\u5173\u952e\u8bcd\uff0c\u8bb0\u8005\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5Google\u4e00\u4e0b\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fbf\u4ee5\u540e\u5c31\u7b97\u5199\u8f6f\u6587\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u66f4professional\u4e00\u4e9b\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u6211\u539a\u989c\u65e0\u803b\u5730\u7b80\u8981\u79d1\u666e\u4e00\u4e0b\u8fd9\u65b9\u9762\u4e8b\u60c5\u3002\u5b66\u672f\u4e0d\u7aef\uff08science\/research misconduct\uff09\u7684\u8bdd\u9898\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u5f88\u70ed\uff0c\u4f46\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u90fd\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u9020\u5047\u3001\u6284\u88ad\u548c\u4e00\u7a3f\u591a\u6295\u7b49\u4e8b\u60c5\u4e0a\u9762\u3002\u5173\u4e8efinancial disclosure\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u8fd8\u5f88\u5c11\u4eba\u63d0\u53ca\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e2d\u56fd\u8fd8\u6ca1\u53d1\u5c55\u5230\u90a3\u4e2a\u5730\u6b65\u3002\u4f46\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c\u5b66\u672f\u4e0d\u7aef\u4e11\u95fb\u6709\u76f8\u5f53\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u5176\u5b9e\u4e0d\u662f\u9020\u5047\u6284\u88ad\u8fd9\u79cd\u4f4e\u7ea7\u884c\u4e3a\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u88ab\u66dd\u9690\u7792\u8d44\u52a9\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u9879\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u603b\u4f1a\u6709\u4e2a\u7ed3\u8bba\u3002\u5728\u5a92\u4f53\u53d1\u8fbe\u7684\u4eca\u5929\u79d1\u5b66\u7ed3\u8bba\u7684\u516c\u5e03\u4f1a\u53d7\u5230\u5feb\u901f\u800c\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u5ba3\u4f20\uff0c\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\u8fd9\u4e9b\u79d1\u5b66\u7ed3\u8bba\u4f1a\u7eb3\u5165\u653f\u5e9c\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u7ec4\u7ec7\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u7eff\u8272\u548c\u5e73\u3001\u79c1\u4eba\u4f01\u4e1a\u7b49\uff09\u51b3\u7b56\u548c\u5ba3\u4f20\u7684\u53c2\u8003\u4e4b\u5185\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u8fd9\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u662f\u5177\u6709\u67d0\u79cd\u503e\u5411\u6027\u7684\uff08bias\uff09\uff0c\u662f\u88ab\u5305\u88c5\u7684\uff08warped\uff09\uff0c\u8bef\u5bfc\u6027\u4f1a\u5f88\u5927\uff0c\u540e\u679c\u5f88\u4e25\u91cd\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u901a\u884c\u7684\u5b66\u672f\u9053\u5fb7\u89c4\u8303\u4e2d\uff0c\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u7279\u6b8a\u9886\u57df\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u533b\u7597\u98df\u54c1\u536b\u751f\uff09\u6216\u53d7\u7279\u522b\u59d4\u6258\uff08\u5982\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684FDA\u3001EPA\uff09\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u5fc5\u987b\u6e05\u695a\u5217\u660e\u7814\u7a76\u7ecf\u8d39\u7684\u8d44\u52a9\u65b9\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fbf\u4ed6\u4eba\u80fd\u591f\u5224\u65ad\u8be5\u7ed3\u8bba\u662f\u5426\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5177\u6709\u5bf9\u8d44\u52a9\u65b9\u6709\u5229\u7684\u4e0d\u5f53\u503e\u5411\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u3002\u5426\u5219\uff0c\u4f1a\u5f53\u4f5c\u5b66\u672f\u4e0d\u7aef\u3002\u9700\u8981\u516c\u5f00\u7684\u9664\u4e86\u8d44\u52a9\u65b9\u5916\uff0c\u8fd8\u5305\u62ec\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u6267\u884c\u8005\u7684\u4e2a\u4eba\u7b80\u5386\uff0c\u4ee5\u4f9b\u4ed6\u4eba\u5ba1\u67e5\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u81ea\u8eab\u662f\u5426\u5c5e\u4e8e\u67d0\u5229\u76ca\u654f\u611f\u65b9\u3002\u9057\u61be\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u9690\u7792\u8d44\u52a9\u8fd9\u4e00\u9879\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u5305\u542b\u5728Wikipedia\u7684\u201c\u5b66\u672f\u4e0d\u7aef\u201d\u6761\u76ee\u91cc\uff0c\u4f46\u662fWikipedia\u7684\u201c\u5229\u76ca\u51b2\u7a81\u201d\u6761\u76ee\u91cc\u6709\u63d0\u5230\u8fd9\u65b9\u9762\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u7f8e\u56fdNIH\u3001NSF\u3001FDA\u7f51\u7ad9\u4e0a\u4e5f\u6709\u5b83\u4eec\u5404\u81ea\u7684\u5177\u4f53\u89c4\u5b9a\uff08\u94fe\u63a5\u5df2\u7ed9\u51fa\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u5982\u6b64\u4fe1\u8d56\u8fd9\u4e09\u4e2a\u673a\u6784\u6d41\u51fa\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u7ed3\u8bba\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4e00\u7bc7\u4e13\u4e1a\u7684\u8f6f\u6587\uff0c\u5728\u5f15\u7528\u7814\u7a76\u62a5\u544a\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u4f1a\u70b9\u660e\u4e0e\u5229\u76ca\u51b2\u7a81\u95ee\u9898\u6709\u5173\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u3002\u800c\u4e14\u6070\u6070\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e00\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u4f60\u7684\u62a5\u9053\u60f3\u8bf4\u660e\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u6700\u597d\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5e94\u8be5\u662f\u4e00\u56fd\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u81ea\u7136\u79d1\u5b66\u57fa\u91d1\u6216\u56fd\u5bb6\u536b","rel":"","context":"In &quot;\u4ee5tag\u5206\u7c7b\u7684\u6587\u7ae0&quot;","block_context":{"text":"\u4ee5tag\u5206\u7c7b\u7684\u6587\u7ae0","link":"https:\/\/www.andrewsun.net\/panta_rhei\/archives\/category\/tagged"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":6002,"url":"https:\/\/www.andrewsun.net\/panta_rhei\/archives\/6002","url_meta":{"origin":766,"position":3},"title":"\u5173\u4e8efirst principle","author":"Andrew","date":"2014\u5e746\u67082\u65e5","format":"aside","excerpt":"\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8bcd\u5e38\u5e38\u5f53\u4f5c\u5f62\u5bb9\u8bcd\u6765\u7528\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u662f\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e00\u4e2a\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u7279\u6027\u7684\u8bcd\u3002\u5b83\u4e5f\u4e0d\u5177\u4f53\u8ddf\u4ec0\u4e48\u91cf\u5b50\u529b\u5b66\u76f8\u5173\uff0c\u5b83\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e00\u822c\u6027\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u6982\u5ff5\u3002Wikipedia\u6709\u8bcd\u6761First principle\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e00\u53e5\u8bdd\u5c31\u5f88\u6e05\u695a\uff1aa first principle is a basic, foundational proposition or assumption that cannot be deduced from any other proposition or assumption. \u5728\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u4e2d\uff0cfirst principle\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8bcd\u4e5f\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u8ba1\u7b97\u7269\u7406\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u3002\u5b83\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u6765\u5f62\u5bb9\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u4e2a\u7406\u8bba\u6a21\u578b\u662f\u5426\u7b26\u5408\u4e0a\u9762\u8fd9\u53e5\u8bdd\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u8fd8\u539f\u8bba\u7684\u7406\u60f3\u662f\u65e0\u7a77\u65e0\u5c3d\u7684\uff08\u4f11\u8c1f\u95ee\u9898\uff09\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u7406\u8bba\u6a21\u578b\u662f\u5426first principle\u3001\u5b83\u7684foundation\u662f\u5426\u5df2\u7ecfcannot be deduced from any other assumption\uff0c\u90a3\u4e5f\u53ea\u80fd\u662f\u4e2a\u76f8\u5bf9\u7a0b\u5ea6\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8bcd\u5f80\u5f80\u53ea\u662f\u7528\u4e8e\u4e0e\u201c\u7ecf\u9a8c\u201d\uff08empirical\uff09\u6216\u8005\u201c\u552f\u8c61\u201d\uff08phenomenological\uff09\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u8bcd\u76f8\u5bf9\u5e94\uff0c\u8bf4\u660e\u4e00\u4e2a\u7406\u8bba\u4e0d\u662f\u7ecf\u9a8c\u6216\u552f\u8c61\u7684\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u5b9a\u8981\u201c\u4ece\u91cf\u5b50\u529b\u5b66\u51fa\u53d1\u201d\u624d\u53ebfirst principle\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u662f\u8981\u770b\u5177\u4f53\u7814\u7a76\u9886\u57df\u7684\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u63cf\u8ff0\u73bb\u7483\u6001\u7269\u8d28\u7684\u52a8\u6001\uff08dynamics\uff09\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u6a21\u578b\u53eb\u505amode-coupling theory\uff08MCT\uff09\uff0c\u5b83\u4e3b\u8981\u89e3\u51b3\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u662f\u7269\u8d28\u7684\u52a8\u6001\uff0c\u800c\u4ed6\u7684\u51fa\u53d1\u70b9\u662f\u7269\u8d28\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\uff08structure\uff09\u3002\u7b80\u5355\u5730\u8bf4\uff0c\u5b83\u662f\u4ece\u9759\u6b62\u7ed3\u6784\u51fa\u53d1\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u8fd0\u52a8\u3002\u4e1a\u754c\u516c\u8ba4\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7406\u8bba\u662ffirst principle\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u9700\u8981\u7684\u5c31\u662f\u5df2\u77e5\u7684\u529b\u5b66\uff0c\u4f46\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u7528\u91cf\u5b50\u529b\u5b66\u3002 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